What’s the Secret to Making a Great Prediction? (NSQ Ep. 52)

Also: how do you recover from a bad day?

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Relevant Research & References

Here’s where you can learn more about the people and ideas in this episode:

SOURCES

• Philip Tetlock, professor of psychology at the University of Pennsylvania.
• Daniel Kahneman, professor of psychology at Princeton University.
• Barbara Mellers, professor of psychology at the University of Pennsylvania.
• Richard Pine, Angela’s literary agent and co-founder of Inkwell Management.
• Katy Milkman, professor of behavioral economics at the University of Pennsylvania.

RESOURCES

• How to Change: The Science of Getting from Where You Are to Where You Want to Be, by Katy Milkman (2021).
• “This Self-Made Billionaire Failed the LSAT Twice, Then Sold Fax Machines for 7 Years Before Hitting Big — Here’s How She Got There,” by Gillian Zoe Segal (CNBC, 2019).
• Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction, by Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner (2015).
• Thinking, Fast and Slow, by Daniel Kahneman (2011).
• “Economics – The Promise of Prediction Markets,” by Kenneth Arrow, Robert Forsythe, Michael Gorham, and Robert Hahn (Science, 2008).
• Your Erroneous Zones: Step-by-Step Advice for Escaping the Trap of Negative Thinking and Taking Control of Your Life, by Wayne Dyer (1976).

EXTRAS

• “Are You Ready for a Fresh Start? (Ep. 455),” by Freakonomics Radio (2021).
• “How to Be Less Terrible at Predicting the Future (Ep. 233),” by Freakonomics Radio (2016).
• “The Folly of Prediction (Ep. 41),” by Freakonomics Radio (2011).

The post What’s the Secret to Making a Great Prediction? (NSQ Ep. 52) appeared first on Freakonomics.

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